Robin Hanson warns that Catastrophes, like epidemics, earthquakes, forest fires, and wars, follow power law distributions.
Abstract:

Humans have slowly built more productive societies by slowly acquiring various kinds of capital, and by carefully matching them to each other. Because disruptions can disturb this careful matching, and discourage social coordination, large disruptions can cause a “social collapse,” i.e., a reduction in productivity out of proportion to the disruption. For many types of disasters, severity seems to follow a power law distribution. For some of types, such as wars and earthquakes, most of the expected harm is predicted to occur in extreme events…

The collapse is actually quite worse than the initial disruption.

To avoid a catastrophic collapse, you have to prepare for unpredictable Black Swan events. Well, alright…

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