Global Insurgency


Syria is supposed to have taken nuclear material or weapons from North Korea (or Iran), Israel tracked it and destroyed it in the airstrike last week.

Maybe. But it’s looking more and more like it.

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Ayman al-Zawahiri appears to be taking over Al-Qaeda. He’s always been the primary strategist for AQ.

The US and the Arab States are trying to contain Iran through conventional means while Iran is trying to break that containment through 4 Gen Warfare. Iran has been waging a Proxy War against the US in Afghanistan and Iraq. Iran sponsors Hezbollah and Hamas to fight and tie down Israel.

This is like a micro-version of the Cold War
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Strategy Page. After taking a pounding this year, the Taliban are discussing negotiations with the Afghan Government.

The Afghan Pashtun Tribes turned against the Taliban over the past few years. The Pashtuns have one of their own – President Karzai – in charge of the country, so there is no nationalist drive to help the Taliban. The Taliban have weakened their own popularity through suicide bombings, intimidation tactics, attacking food convoys and dishonorable kidnappings. Kidnapping very popular deminers and women only hurt the Taliban even more.

The Taliban coalition in Afghanistan is breaking down. Over the long run, the drug lords will become regional warlords, but that’s a different problem.

Italy’s far left radicals are reforming a New Red Brigade and are “flirting” with Al-Qaeda and other Islamist radicals, Lorenzo Vidino reports. The original Red Brigades was a communist terrorist organization in the 1980s.

“September 11, 2001,” said the 44-year-old militant, “must open the field to the revolutionary vanguards and not only in Italy. The upcoming war against Iraq constitutes an attempt to remove the main obstacle to the hegemony of the Zionist entity, the stronghold of imperialism in the region, disarming and annihilating the Palestinian resistance, which is the reference of all Arab and Islamic masses who have been expropriated and humiliated by imperialism and who constitute the natural ally of the urban proletarian class in European countries”

The New Red Brigades have been growing closer to the Islamist radicals since 2003. So the convergence of radicals continues.

This is disconcerting. North Korea (and possibly Iran) may have worked with Syria to start a nuclear program. Israel is apparently releasing intelligence to the US to expose this secret project.

So is that what the Israelis were shooting at last week? If so, keep shooting guys. Thanks!

Strategy Page describes Al-Qaeda declining fortunes. AQ is making the same mistake as the Armed Islamic Group (GIA) in Algeria. In 1991, the Islamist political party was about to win the general elections. The military government cancelled the elections, so the Islamists rebelled. They initially had popular support – they represented reform, less corruption, and promised better government services.

Then the GIA started to actually fight. As the decade-long civil war dragged on, the GIA waged an ever more brutal campaign. Extremist interpretations of Islam, ultra-strict religious laws, terror attacks and mass murder of civilians turned the population against the Islamists. The Algerian government won the war in 2002 after 200,000 were killed. Today, a handful of Islamist radicals continue to terrorize Algeria under the name of al-Qaeda.

Al-Qaeda seems hell-bent on repeated the GIA’s “stragery.”
They took what should have been a mass movement and made it a hyper-violent fringe. AQ’s greatest success in winning converts, luckily for us, has been here in the US and Europe.

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